Alan Abramowitz

Alan Ira Abramowitz
Alan Ira Abramowitz
Born	December 1, 1947 (age 78)
Occupation(s)	Political scientist, writer
Years active	1976–present
Known for	Studies on American politics, elections in the United States, political parties in the United States; time-for-change model

Alan Ira Abramowitz (born December 1, 1947) is a distinguished American political scientist and writer, noted for his extensive studies on American politics, elections in the United States, and political parties in the United States.

Early life

Abramowitz obtained his Bachelor of Arts degree with high honors in political science from the University of Rochester in 1969. He pursued graduate studies at Stanford University, where he earned a Master of Arts in 1972 and a Doctorate in 1976. His doctoral dissertation was entitled An Assessment of Party and Incumbent Accountability in Midterm Congressional Elections.

Career

Between 1976 and 1982, Abramowitz served as a faculty member at the College of William & Mary, followed by a teaching position at Stony Brook University from 1982 to 1987. Subsequently, he joined Emory University as a professor of political science. In 1993, he was honored with the Alben W. Barkley Distinguished Chair in Political Science at Emory.

He has written or collaborated on five books, including the notable 1992 publication Senate Elections, co-authored with Jeff Segal. This work earned two awards from political science associations and remains a foundational text in the study of senatorial elections. Abramowitz’s scholarship encompasses presidential, Senate, and House elections, alongside topics such as political activism, polarization, ideology, partisanship, ideological shifts, incumbency effects, and redistricting.

Time-for-change model

In 1988, Abramowitz introduced the "time-for-change model" designed to forecast popular vote results in United States presidential elections. The model incorporates three variables: economic growth during the second quarter of the election year, the incumbent president's approval rating at mid-year, and the length of time the incumbent's party has occupied the White House. The "time-for-change" element captures the concept that prolonged dominance by one party enhances the likelihood of opposition success due to voters’ preference for periodic power alternation.

This model successfully predicted every presidential popular vote outcome from 1988 through 2016, except for the 2016 election when it inaccurately forecasted a popular vote victory for Donald Trump. Although Trump lost the popular vote to Hillary Clinton, he secured the United States Electoral College. Abramowitz explained that his model assumes candidates from both major parties are mainstream figures—a condition not met by Trump.

Select publications

Books

Alan I. Abramowitz, Ronald B. Rapoport, John McGlennon, Party activists in Virginia: a study of delegates to the 1978 senatorial nominating conventions, Institute of Government, University of Virginia, 1981.
Alan I. Abramowitz, Walter J. Stone, Nomination politics: party activists and presidential choice, Praeger, New York, 1984.
Alan I. Abramowitz (editor), Ronald B. Rapoport (editor), John McGlennon (editor), The Life of the parties: activists in presidential politics, University Press of Kentucky, Lexington, Kentucky, 1986.
Alan I. Abramowitz, Jeffrey A. Segal, Senate elections, University of Michigan Press, Ann Arbor, 1992.
Alan I. Abramowitz, Voice of the people: elections and voting in the United States, McGraw-Hill, New York, 2004.
Alan I. Abramowitz, The disappearing center: engaged citizens, polarization, and American democracy, Yale University Press, New Haven, 2010.
Alan I. Abramowitz, The polarized public? Why our government is so dysfunctional, Pearson, Upper Saddle River, New Jersey, 2013.
Alan I. Abramowitz, The Great Alignment: Race, Party Transformation, and the Rise of Donald Trump, Yale University Press, New Haven, 2018.

Journal articles

Alan I. Abramowitz and Jeffrey A. Segal, "Determinants of the outcomes of U.S. Senate elections," The Journal of Politics, vol. 48, no. 2 (May 1986), pp. 433–439.
Alan I. Abramowitz, Albert D. Cover, Helmut Norpoth, "The President's party in midterm elections: going from bad to worse," American Journal of Political Science, vol. 30, no. 3 (August 1986), pp. 562–576.
Alan I. Abramowitz, "Forecasting the 2008 Presidential election with the time-for-change model," PS Political Science & Politics, vol. 41, no. 4 (October 2008), pp. 691–695.
Alan I. Abramowitz, "The Republican establishment versus The Tea Party," University of Virginia Center for Politics (November 14, 2013).
Alan I. Abramowitz and Steven Webster, "The rise of negative partisanship and the nationalization of U.S. elections in the 21st century," Electoral Studies, vol. 41 (March 2016), pp.12–22.
Alan I. Abramowitz, "Will time for change mean time for Trump?" PS Political Science & Politics, vol. 49, no.4 (October 2016), pp.659–660.

Sources

External links