Alan M. Taylor

Alan M. Taylor
Born	(1964-11-15) November 15, 1964 Yorkshire, England
Occupation(s)	Economist, academician, policy expert
Years active	1987–present
Known for	Research on international economics, economic history, exchange rates, financial crises; Monetary Policy Committee member of the Bank of England

Alan M. Taylor (born 15 November 1964) is a distinguished economist, academician, and policy expert. He holds a professorship at Columbia University, serves as a Research Associate with the National Bureau of Economic Research, and is a Research Fellow at the Centre for Economic Policy Research.

On 16 August 2024, Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves appointed Taylor to join the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England as an external member, with his tenure commencing in September 2024.

Early life and career

Taylor was born in Yorkshire and attended Queen Elizabeth Grammar School, Wakefield, subsequently earning a scholarship to King's College, Cambridge. He graduated as a Wrangler in 1987 before pursuing doctoral studies in economics at Harvard University, where he specialized in economic history and international economics under the mentorship of Jeffrey Williamson and Maurice Obstfeld.

Following a Harvard Academy Scholars fellowship, Taylor held academic positions at Northwestern University, University of California, Davis, and University of Virginia. In 2004, he was honored with a Guggenheim Fellow award and later served as a Houblon-Norman/George Fellow at the Bank of England during 2009–10. His visiting appointments include distinguished roles at Stanford University, the London School of Economics, and London Business School.

Taylor stepped away from academia to act as senior advisor at Morgan Stanley between 2010 and 2011, concentrating on global macroeconomic issues and emerging markets across New York and London. In 2019, he joined PIMCO as a senior advisor based in Newport Beach.

Research and publications

Taylor has produced or edited ten books along with more than eighty scholarly articles covering international economics, trade, finance, growth, and macroeconomics, frequently integrating insights from economic history. He has delivered lectures at central banks and international institutions, participated on editorial boards, and secured numerous grants from both the National Science Foundation and the Institute for New Economic Thinking. Among his notable works is the co-authored textbook International Economics (Worth Publishers) alongside Robert Feenstra.

Economic history of Argentina

During the 1990s, Taylor made significant contributions to the study of Argentina’s economic history by examining long-term real and financial determinants behind its sluggish development following 1914. He disputed the prevailing notion that divergence began solely after 1945 during the Perón period. Collaborating extensively with Gerardo della Paolera, they jointly authored multiple papers, a monograph titled Straining at the Anchor (University of Chicago Press), and an edited collection A New Economic History of Argentina (Cambridge University Press). Their collaborative research was recognized with the Cole Prize awarded by the Economic History Association.

The trilemma

In the mid-1990s, Taylor partnered with Obstfeld to investigate global financial integration alongside macroeconomic dynamics over extended periods. Their work earned them the Sanwa Prize and was disseminated through scholarly articles as well as their book Global Capital Markets (Cambridge University Press). In 1997, they introduced the now widely accepted concept of the "trilemma" to characterize the inherent trade-offs among fixed exchange rates, capital mobility, and independent monetary policy. Collaborating with Jay Shambaugh, they pioneered empirical techniques to rigorously test this fundamental hypothesis within international macroeconomics.

Economics of exchange rates

Since the late 1990s, Taylor has concentrated on the economics surrounding exchange rates, contributing significant insights into their long-term trends and the purchasing-power parity theory. More recently, his investigations have turned to short-term fluctuations in exchange rates, assessing strategies such as the carry trade alongside other currency investment approaches. Throughout his work on both long- and short-term horizons, Taylor has highlighted the importance of nonlinear processes in shaping exchange rate movements. Notable collaborators in these studies include Obstfeld, Mark Taylor (unrelated), and Òscar Jordà.

Credit, financial crises, and the macroeconomy

In the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, Taylor’s research has focused on the influence of bank lending within financial crises and economic downturns. In partnership with Moritz Schularick, he compiled the first extensive historical dataset of total bank credit for 14 countries, covering a period starting from 1870. Their 2012 publication, "Credit Booms Gone Bust," revealed extraordinary credit surges in developed economies leading up to 2008 and established that rapid credit growth serves as a powerful indicator of impending financial crises. Working alongside Jordà, they further identified that severe credit expansions tend to be associated with recessions that are both longer-lasting and more severe—trends evident in advanced economies following the 2008 crisis.

External links

• Alan M. Taylor's personal webpage