American Research Group
| Company type | Private |
|---|---|
| Industry | Market research, opinion polling |
| Founded | 1985 |
| Headquarters | Manchester , United States |
Key people | Lafell Dickinson Bennett (President) |
| Website | www |
American Research Group, Incorporated is a market research and opinion polling company located in Manchester, New Hampshire, established in 1985. The firm's president, Lafell Dickinson Bennett (known as Dick Bennett), previously served as the pollster for 1980 presidential hopeful John B. Anderson.
Methodology
Pollster Mark Blumenthal observed that ARG utilizes a unique approach by blending party registration with party identification data in a manner distinct from other polling organizations, which leads to results that are not directly comparable. In 2004, Gallup criticized ARG’s "likely voter" model for its simplicity, as it depended on just one question. In 2007, ARG was reproached for limiting its surveys to landline telephone users; the company defended this choice by arguing that most younger voters who use only cell phones tend not to participate in elections.
Reception
By November 2019, ARG possessed a B grade from FiveThirtyEight. Analyst Nate Silver has repeatedly expressed doubts about ARG’s reliability, particularly during the 2012 U.S. presidential election, labeling their polling data as generally untrustworthy. During the 2008 U.S. presidential primaries, ARG was ranked lowest among nine pollsters conducting ten or more surveys.
The Washington Post highlighted that ARG’s tracking poll in 2000 was notably inaccurate, forecasting a two-point lead for Bush a day before the primary—off by 20 points from the actual outcome. In 2004, Salon pointed out that ARG failed to disclose its sources of funding for polls. Both Mother Jones and The New Republic have raised concerns regarding ARG’s dependability and standing within the polling sector. Moreover, FiveThirtyEight’s evaluation suggested a modest Republican skew but underscored that ARG’s overall polling accuracy remains poor.