Arnon Mishkin
Arnon Absalom Mishkin | |
|---|---|
| Born | c. 1955 Brooklyn, New York, U.S. |
| Occupation(s) | Management consultant, news analyst |
| Years active | 1980s–present |
| Known for | Head of Fox News Decision Desk |
Arnon Absalom Mishkin (born circa 1955) is an American expert in management consulting, a media figure, and a news analyst affiliated with Fox News. Early in his career, he served as a pollster for political strategist David Garth, working on campaigns for Democratic figures such as Ed Koch, Jay Rockefeller, and Tom Bradley. Mishkin held partnership roles at both the Boston Consulting Group and the Mitchell Madison Group before founding his own firm, Mishkin Associates. Since 1998, he has been a consultant for Fox News' Decision Desk, leading it from 2008 through several presidential election cycles. In 2021, he was appointed a fellow at the Harvard Institute of Politics.
Early life and education
Born in Brooklyn, New York, Mishkin is the son of Eliezer A. Mishkin and Esther Rubin. His father emigrated from Belarus to Mandate Palestine in 1937, where he earned the first doctorate awarded by the Technion - Israel Institute of Technology before relocating to the United States. There, he became a professor specializing in applied physics at the Polytechnic Institute of New York. Mishkin’s mother originated from Kaunas, Lithuania; she escaped wartime occupation and later pursued a career as a social worker in New York. Mishkin has acknowledged that numerous relatives were victims of the Holocaust. He also has one brother named Jonathan Mishkin.
Mishkin completed his secondary education at Phillips Academy in Andover, Massachusetts, obtained a Bachelor of Arts degree from Yale University, and earned an MBA from Harvard Business School.
Polling and consultancy
Mishkin launched his political consulting work in New York under David Garth’s guidance, focusing mainly on Democratic candidates including Jay Rockefeller and Mark Dayton. The firm contributed to Tom Bradley’s 1982 gubernatorial campaign in California, during which the "Bradley effect" was identified—a phenomenon describing polling inaccuracies due to social desirability bias. Other notable campaigns Mishkin was involved with include those of John Lindsay, Ella Grasso, Brendan Byrne, and Mike Bloomberg.
Alongside his political work, Mishkin engaged with broadcast media starting as a general editor at NBC News during the 1980s before joining Fox Corporation in 1998. Simultaneously, he collaborated with the Boston Consulting Group to advise organizations like Forbes and the Associated Press on internet marketing strategies amid the Information Age’s emergence. Following the contested 2000 U.S. presidential election, Mishkin succeeded John Prescott Ellis as head of Fox News’ Decision Desk.
Mishkin generally maintained a low public profile until 2012 when Fox News prematurely called Ohio for Obama during that year’s presidential race. This led to an on-air confrontation involving commentator Karl Rove and anchor Megyn Kelly challenging Mishkin’s reported 99.95% confidence level in making the call. Former Fox Business host Eric Bolling later alleged that Mishkin’s team underestimated Donald Trump’s chances in 2016; however, Mishkin disputed this claim. Politically aligned with Democrats, Mishkin cast his vote for Hillary Clinton in that election.
2020 presidential election
During the 2020 U.S. presidential election cycle, Arnon Mishkin directed Fox News’ Decision Desk operations responsible for election result coverage. Given Fox News’ predominantly Republican audience, his team’s work drew considerable scrutiny ahead of the vote. The New York Times featured him in an article titled "Trump Wants to Discredit the Election. This Nerd Could Stop Him." Collaborating with Dana Blanton and the Associated Press, Mishkin contributed to creating VoteCast, an innovative alternative to conventional exit polling methods. This approach received endorsement from pollsters such as Ariel Edwards-Levy of HuffPost.
On election night, Mishkin’s team was the first major news organization to project Arizona for Joe Biden. When Fox anchor Bret Baier questioned this early call live on air, Mishkin reassured viewers that he was absolutely certain after thorough analysis. President Trump challenged this projection publicly and criticized both Fox News and Mishkin while refusing to concede key battleground states. Ultimately, Mishkin’s forecast proved accurate as Biden secured Arizona by a slim margin of 10,457 votes.
Personal life
In November 1986, Mishkin wed Susan Ellen Fine, who served as vice president of development at Olympia and York Properties. The wedding ceremony took place at Boston's Ritz-Carlton Hotel and was officiated by Rabbi Ben-Zion Gold from the Conservative Jewish Theological Seminary. The couple is the proud parents of two daughters, Allison and Pamela. Since the late 1980s, they have been congregants at the B'nai Jeshurun synagogue located in Manhattan. Mishkin is also officially registered with the Democratic Party in New York.
Filmography
- Best Evidence: The Research Video (1990)
External links
- 1950s births
- Living people
- Mass media people from Brooklyn
- American people of Lithuanian-Jewish descent
- American people of Polish-Jewish descent
- Boston Consulting Group people
- Fox News people
- NBC News people
- New York (state) Democrats
- Psephologists
- Phillips Academy alumni
- Yale University alumni
- Harvard Business School alumni
- 20th-century American Jews
- 21st-century American Jews