Ellen Zentner

Ellen Beeson Zentner
Occupation(s)	Economist, managing director
Years active	1998–present
Known for	Chief US Economist at Morgan Stanley

Ellen Beeson Zentner holds the position of managing director and serves as the Chief US Economist at Morgan Stanley. Her previous roles include Senior Economist positions with the Texas State government, Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd., and Nomura Securities International.

Education

Zentner pursued studies in economics, earning a bachelor's degree in business administration followed by a master's degree specializing in econometrics from the University of Colorado Denver.

Career

Following her graduate education, Zentner started her professional journey at the Texas State Comptroller as a Senior Economist within the Revenue Estimating Division from 1998 until 2003. Her responsibilities involved evaluating the impact of Texas tax policies on households across various income brackets.

She later transitioned to Wall Street in New York, joining Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd as Senior US Macro Economist, where she concentrated on forecasting the U.S. economy for eight years. In May 2011, she took on the role of Senior Economist for Fixed Income at Nomura Securities International. By August 2013, Zentner became Senior U.S. Economist and managing director at Morgan Stanley, and was promoted to Chief U.S. Economist in February 2015.

Economic and academic advisory panels

Between 2015 and 2016, Zentner held the presidency of the New York Association for Business Economics. She is actively engaged with several advisory groups, including the Economic Advisory panel at the New York Federal Reserve Bank, the Academic Advisory Panel at the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank, and the Economic Advisory Committee of the American Bankers' Association. Additionally, she is a board member of the National Association for Business Economics.

"The Economic Cost of Inequality"

In this study, Zentner explores historical trends in income inequality, its expansion following the financial crisis, and potential measures to reduce disparities. She highlights that for many years, average American families increasingly depended on borrowing to compensate for stagnant wage growth, sustaining Middle America’s financial stability. The financial crisis revealed this vulnerability by removing debt accumulation as a safety net. Nonetheless, recent data indicate wage growth among small businesses, declining household debt levels, higher savings rates, and enhanced employment stability.

Millennials, Gen Z and the Coming ‘Youth Boom’ Economy

Zentner evaluates Generation Z (born between 1997 and 2012), who are expected to become the dominant segment of the U.S. workforce by 2034. The Morgan Stanley economics team projects that combined labor force expansion from Generations Y and Z will stimulate consumption, wage increases, housing demand, and overall GDP growth—effects that may be underestimated by Congressional Budget Office (CBO) forecasts. Zentner suggests that CBO projections could underrepresent labor force growth by 0.2 to 0.3 percent annually through 2040, potentially leading to an undervaluation of GDP by as much as 4.3 percent. This demographic transformation implies stronger solvency prospects for Social Security and Medicare alongside a positive economic outlook through 2040. Contributing factors include financially secure Gen Z entrants into the workforce, increased employment opportunities, reduced higher education costs, improved alignment between skills and jobs, and no generational decline in productivity—together fostering a reinforcing cycle of workforce growth, productivity improvements, income gains, and consumer spending expansion.

Awards and recognition

Zentner was honored with the Lawrence Klein Award in both 2018 and 2020, acknowledging her precision in economic predictions.

Personal life

Zentner enjoys fly fishing as a passionate hobby.