Polymarket
| Company type | Private |
|---|---|
| Industry | Cryptocurrency, Prediction market |
| Founded | 2020 |
| Founder | Shayne Coplan |
| Headquarters | Manhattan, New York City , United States |
Area served | Worldwide (excluding United States since 2022) |
Key people | Shayne Coplan (Founder), J. Christopher Giancarlo (Chairman of advisory board), Donald Trump Jr. (Advisor) |
| Products | Prediction market platform using USDC stablecoin on Polygon blockchain |
| Website | polymarket |
Polymarket is a cryptocurrency-based prediction market platform located in Manhattan, New York City. Established in 2020 by Shayne Coplan, the platform allows participants to buy and sell shares that reflect the likelihood of various future events spanning domains such as politics, economics, weather, and legislation. All transactions are conducted using USDC stablecoin on the Polygon blockchain.
Starting in 2022, Polymarket ceased providing services to users within the United States following a $1.4 million settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) due to operating an unregistered derivatives marketplace.
History
Launched in 2020 by Shayne Coplan, Polymarket offers a marketplace for trading predictions on global event outcomes. In January 2022, the CFTC imposed a $1.4 million fine and ordered Polymarket to halt operations as an unregistered Swap Execution Facility. The agency acknowledged Polymarket's significant cooperation throughout the investigation, which contributed to a reduced penalty.
In May 2022, J. Christopher Giancarlo, a former CFTC Commissioner, was named chairman of Polymarket’s advisory board. By May 2024, the company had secured $70 million through two funding rounds led by Founders Fund, the venture capital firm founded by Peter Thiel, with additional investment from Vitalik Buterin, co-founder of Ethereum.
Interest in Polymarket surged in mid-2023 after a tweet about a wager on the discovery date of the Titan submersible went viral. This highlighted the platform’s wide range of markets including elections, corporate legal battles, and geopolitical risks.
In October 2025, Polymarket obtained up to $2 billion in funding from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), placing its valuation at $8 billion.
2024 United States elections
The 2024 U.S. election cycle became Polymarket’s most active category, with over $3.3 billion staked on the presidential contest between Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris. Nate Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight, joined as an advisor during this period. Due to regulatory restrictions imposed by the CFTC, Polymarket runs its election prediction markets outside U.S. jurisdiction.
Following the presidential debate held on June 27, Polymarket’s forecasts suggested a 70% probability that Joe Biden would exit the race weeks prior to his official withdrawal announcement. In August, the platform indicated a 68% chance that Kamala Harris would select Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro as her running mate; however, she ultimately chose Minnesota governor Tim Walz.
On October 7, odds for Trump’s victory rose sharply to 53.3%, while Harris’s chances declined to 46.1%. Meanwhile, competitors such as PredictIt and FiveThirtyEight’s polling models maintained Harris’s odds near 54–55%. Forbes observed that this discrepancy might be influenced by substantial wagers following Elon Musk’s endorsement of Polymarket and his recent backing of Trump. The absence of limits on individual bet sizes allowed these large stakes to potentially distort market signals. Nate Silver characterized the shift toward Trump as "larger than justified."
By mid-October, Trump’s chances climbed to 60%, fueled by four bettors placing roughly $30 million in total wagers on him. The Wall Street Journal reported these accounts displayed similar betting patterns, suggesting possible control by a single party. Polymarket launched an investigation into potential manipulation linked to the Trump campaign but later confirmed all accounts belonged to one seasoned French trader with no evidence of wrongdoing. This trader eventually earned $85 million after Trump’s victory. Additionally, blockchain analyst ZachXBT connected a $13 million Trump-betting account to George Cottrell, a British political consultant associated with Nigel Farage.
Association with the Trump family
During the second Trump administration, Polymarket experienced a reduction in regulatory scrutiny. In July 2025, both the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Department of Justice concluded their investigation into Polymarket. Earlier, under the Biden administration, Polymarket had reached a settlement with the CFTC, agreeing to cease its U.S. operations amid accusations of running an unauthorized exchange. Donald Trump Jr. has since assumed an advisory position within Polymarket.
Legal matters
On November 13, 2024, federal agents from the FBI conducted a search of Coplan's residence and confiscated his mobile device as part of a Department of Justice probe into allegations that Polymarket permitted U.S. residents to place wagers on its platform.
By November 26, 2024, Polymarket.com was blacklisted by the Swiss Gambling Supervisory Authority for breaching gambling and sports betting laws. Soon after, the French National Gaming Authority announced that Polymarket had consented to restrict access to its services within France following regulatory inquiries.
In early 2025, access to Polymarket.com was blocked by Poland’s Ministry of Finance and Singapore’s Gambling Regulatory Authority due to unlawful gambling concerns. On February 3, 2025, Belgium’s Commission des Jeux de Hasard prohibited the platform, alerting users that participation was illegal in Belgium.
On July 15, 2025, investigations by the U.S. Department of Justice and CFTC into Polymarket were officially closed without any new charges filed, marking the end of regulatory actions following prior settlements and enforcement measures.
Subsequent to this closure, Polymarket acquired QCEX—a derivatives exchange and clearinghouse licensed by the CFTC—for $112 million. This acquisition grants Polymarket the ability to operate legally in the United States with full regulatory compliance.
See also
- Prediction market § List of prediction markets
- Online gambling
- Policy Analysis Market – former U.S. government futures prediction market
- PredictIt – New Zealand-based online prediction market with exclusive U.S. access
- Kalshi – U.S.-based online prediction market restricted to U.S. users