Suffolk University Political Research Center
| Company type | Academic research center |
|---|---|
| Industry | Opinion polling, Public opinion research |
| Founded | 2002 |
| Founder | David Paleologos |
| Headquarters | Boston , United States |
Key people | David Paleologos (Director) |
| Parent | Suffolk University |
The Suffolk University Political Research Center (SUPRC) operates as an opinion polling facility based at Suffolk University in Boston, Massachusetts.
History, organization, and leadership
Established in 2002, the center primarily focuses on conducting polls at the national and state levels, with a particular emphasis on New Hampshire and Massachusetts. Occasionally, it surveys local contests such as the 2013 Boston mayoral race for the Boston Herald, as well as ballot measures including those related to marijuana legalization and charter schools.
David Paleologos, who founded the center and continues to serve as its director, also teaches within Suffolk University's Political Science and Legal Studies Department. He holds membership in the American Association of Public Opinion Researchers (AAPOR).
Suffolk stands among a distinguished group of leading academic polling organizations in the United States, alongside entities like Marist College (Marist Institute for Public Opinion), Monmouth University (Monmouth University Polling Institute), and Quinnipiac University (Quinnipiac University Polling Institute).
Political history and methodology
The center asserts it was "the first research center to provide all demographic cross-tabulation data for each poll free of charge." Beginning in 2008, it expanded its polling efforts to include "battleground states" during presidential elections.
From a methodological standpoint, SUPRC employs live telephone interviews, incorporating mobile phone sampling since 2012, initially targeting highly competitive races. For instance, during the 2014 gubernatorial contest, Suffolk University/Boston Herald polls featured a mobile phone sample share of 35%, surpassing many other pollsters. Their forecasts were notably precise, predicting Republican Charlie Baker's win over Democrat Martha Coakley within one percentage point of the actual outcome. An analysis published in Survey Practice suggested that surpassing statewide cell-phone sampling rates may be essential for accurate polling in Democratic-leaning states such as Massachusetts.
SUPRC utilizes a mixed methodology that combines traditional statewide probability sampling with supplementary nonprobability sampling focused on key bellwether districts; this approach proved effective in their 2008 New Hampshire primary polling. By 2011, this hybrid strategy achieved a 92% success rate by correctly forecasting election results in 33 out of 36 instances.
In 2014, Suffolk collaborated with USA Today to conduct midterm election polls and extended this partnership nationwide during the 2016 cycle. As of September 2020, FiveThirtyEight, under Nate Silver’s leadership, assigned Suffolk an "A" grade based on an 80% accuracy rate across 88 polls.
In 2021, Suffolk and USA TODAY introduced "CityView," a survey initiative targeting residents of major U.S. cities to assess opinions on crime, racial issues, and policing practices. The following year saw them polling 1,000 Russian and Ukrainian Americans to understand perspectives on global leaders and geopolitical tensions. Prior to the November 2022 midterms, Suffolk conducted seven polls accurately predicting all winners in critical U.S. Senate races across states including Arizona, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania.
By March 2023, FiveThirtyEight recognized Suffolk University as the top-performing pollster during the 2021-2022 midterm elections cycle, highlighting its lowest average error rate among pollsters with a minimum of five qualifying polls. Likewise, realclearpolitics.com ranked Suffolk #1 across five election cycles (2014-2022) among pollsters covering at least ten states.
Throughout the 2024 presidential election cycle, Suffolk’s polling in swing states—both statewide and within bellwether districts—for presidential and U.S. Senate races consistently remained inside the margin of error during the final three weeks before Election Day—achieving flawless accuracy across all 14 measured statistical outcomes.
See also
- Quinnipiac University Polling Institute
- Franklin & Marshall College Poll
- Siena Research Institute
- Monmouth University Polling Institute
- Marist Institute for Public Opinion