The Next Civil War

The Next Civil War: Dispatches from the American Future

Company type	Non-fiction book
Industry	Publishing
Founded	2022
Founder	Stephen Marche
Products	Book

The Next Civil War: Dispatches from the American Future is a 2022 non-fiction work authored by Canadian writer and journalist Stephen Marche. Published a year following the January 6 assault on the US Capitol, the book envisions five distinct scenarios in which a civil war might ignite, potentially resulting in a right-wing dictatorship in the United States within the coming decade.

Premise

Marche’s book relies on "advanced forecasting models and nearly two hundred interviews with specialists—civil war experts, military commanders, law enforcement personnel, secret service operatives, agricultural experts, environmental advocates, historians of warfare, and political analysts." His scenario development was informed by consultations with counterinsurgency professionals who assessed the requirements for managing a US population amid internal conflict.

Background

In November 2018, Stephen Marche authored "America's Next Civil War" for the Canadian publication The Walrus, contemplating how such turmoil in the US might affect Canada. He remarked, "Understanding what unfolds there is essential to anticipating what we will ultimately confront here." Three years later, he expanded this exploration into The Next Civil War: Dispatches from the American Future.

Synopsis

The narrative begins by analyzing the profound political polarization in the United States and its possible ramifications. Marche spotlights incidents such as armed militias assembling at state capitols during the COVID lockdowns and the January 6th insurrection, suggesting these events indicate that civil war dynamics may already be active. He contends that a political crisis is either imminent or already underway, pending only its catalyst.

Marche presents five civil conflict scenarios, each initiated by different provocations: armed confrontations between federal troops and far-right militias; the assassination of a Democratic president; devastation of New York City by a super hurricane; a dirty bomb explosion in Washington DC; and the peaceful secession of culturally fragmented states. Employing narrative strategies, he illustrates how these situations could unfold.

Linking potential civil unrest to America’s origins, Marche stresses that the nation’s capacity to tolerate partisan differences serves as both an asset and a liability. Yet he cautions that when partisan agendas eclipse national solidarity, "shared purpose disappears," revealing a fundamental weakness in the American experiment. He anticipates a future where many reject America’s inherent contradictions and divisions.

Marche criticizes Democrats for downplaying this threat: "Following the Trump era, Democrats have sought to mend institutional fractures but remain anchored to an outdated vision of America." He notes that despite Joe Biden’s 2020 appeal for unity, political rifts endure as former President Trump declined to concede, while liberals maintain an almost unrealistic confidence in institutions.

This assessment highlights pressing obstacles confronting US governance and societal cohesion amid intensifying polarization.

Reception

Ed Simon, writing for the Chicago Review of Books, concurred with Marche's critique of American liberals for their lack of sufficient concern. According to a review in Kirkus Reviews, although Lincoln might have opposed Marche's suggested solutions, this book remains highly relevant during turbulent times.

Steven W. Beattie, in the Toronto Star, emphasized the difficulty Marche faced in analyzing a swiftly changing scenario, while commending his attempt to predict the future direction of the United States.

In The New York Times Book Review, Ian Bassin characterized the book's storytelling as dramatic and reminiscent of Cormac McCarthy, enhanced by factual commentary; however, he faulted it for its pessimistic tone and failure to fully represent the era’s complexity.

Writing for The Atlantic, Fintan O'Toole delivered a strong critique, arguing that the book fosters a fatalistic outlook that might deepen divisions and incite violence, drawing analogies to Northern Ireland's The Troubles.

Carlos Lozada of The Washington Post pointed out Marche’s vacillation between asserting an imminent civil war and expressing faith in America's ability to overcome its challenges, highlighting this contrast especially in chapters titled "The End of the Republic" and "A Note on American Hope."

See also

• How Civil Wars Start