Tim Michels
2022 Wisconsin gubernatorial election
The 2022 Wisconsin gubernatorial election was held on November 8, 2022, to choose the governor of Wisconsin. Incumbent Democratic Governor Tony Evers won re-election for a second term, capturing 51.15% of the vote and defeating Republican candidate Tim Michels by a margin of 3.4%.
Since Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes pursued a U.S. Senate seat, Democratic state assemblywoman Sara Rodriguez was selected as Evers's running mate. In the partisan primary conducted on August 9, 2022, businessman Tim Michels secured the Republican nomination for governor by defeating former lieutenant governor Rebecca Kleefisch. State Senator Roger Roth was chosen as the Republican nominee for lieutenant governor.
This contest represented the first occasion since 2006 that a Wisconsin Democrat achieved an outright majority in a gubernatorial race and the first time since 1990 that the governor-elect belonged to the same party as the sitting U.S. president. Additionally, it was the first gubernatorial election since 1998 where the winning candidate’s party differed from that of the concurrent U.S. Senate winner.
Evers’s win was regarded as a minor surprise given his narrow victory in 2018 amid a more favorable Democratic climate and late-stage polls indicating Michels held a lead. Political analysts credit Evers’s triumph to his ability to secure independent voters by approximately 6 to 7 percentage points.
From a geographic perspective, Evers improved his standing in suburban "WOW" counties (Waukesha, Ozaukee, Washington), mirroring margins similar to Biden’s performance in 2020, whereas Michels made gains in rural areas that had previously supported Evers or other Democrats. Notably, Door County shifted in favor of Evers despite Michels’s overall rural gains. Evers also won Wisconsin's 3rd congressional district and narrowly lost the 1st district.
Nominee
- Tony Evers, current governor (2019–present)
Disqualified
Nominee
- Sara Rodriguez, state assemblywoman representing the 13th district (2021–2023)
Eliminated in primary
- Peng Her, CEO of Hmong Institute
Withdrawn
- David Bowen, state assemblyman from the 10th district (2015–2023)
- Lena Taylor, state senator for the 4th district (2005–2024) and former state assemblywoman from the 18th district (2003–2005) (withdrew to run for Milwaukee mayor)
Declined
- Mandela Barnes, incumbent lieutenant governor (2019–2023) (chose to run for U.S. Senate in 2022)
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Peng Her |
Sara Rodriguez |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research (D)Template:Efn-ua | July 1–7, 2022 | 560 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 8% | Template:Party shading/Democratic|25% | Template:Party shading/Undecided|62% |
Official Candidate
- Tim Michels, co-owner of Michels Corporation and 2004 nominee for the U.S. Senate[1]
Primary Eliminations
- Adam J. Fischer, former law enforcement officer and entrepreneur[2]
- Rebecca Kleefisch, ex-lieutenant governor (2011–2019)[3][4]
- Timothy Ramthun, representative for Wisconsin's 59th Assembly district[5]
Disqualified Candidates
- James Kellen
- Leonard Larson Jr.
Withdrawn Candidates
- Kevin Nicholson, entrepreneur and former member of the Wisconsin Board of Veterans Affairs; 2018 U.S. Senate contender (remained on ballot)
- Jonathan Wichmann, businessman (pursued lieutenant governor position)
Declined to Run
- Sean Duffy, previous U.S. representative (2011–2019)
- Paul Farrow, Republican Party of Wisconsin chair (2021–2022), Waukesha County Executive since 2015, former state senator (2013–2015)
- Mike Gallagher, current U.S. representative (2017–2024) (sought re-election)
- Eric Hovde, businessman and 2012 Senate candidate
- Ron Johnson, incumbent U.S. senator (since 2011) (ran for re-election)
- Chris Kapenga, Wisconsin Senate President (2021–2025), state senator since 2015 (ran for re-election)
- John Macco, state representative for the 88th district since 2015 (ran for re-election; endorsed Kleefisch)
- Bill McCoshen, lobbyist
- Reince Priebus, former White House Chief of Staff (2017), former RNC chairman (2011–2017), former Wisconsin GOP chair (2007–2011)
- Tommy Thompson, ex-governor (1987–2001), former U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services (2001–2005), 2012 Senate nominee (endorsed Michels)
- Robin Vos, Speaker of the Wisconsin State Assembly since 2013, state representative since 2005 (ran for re-election)
- Scott Walker, former governor (2011–2019) (endorsed Kleefisch)
Polling Data
Visual Summary
| Polling Organization | Dates Conducted | Sample Size[lower-alpha 1] | Margin of Error | Eric Hovde |
Rebecca Kleefisch |
Tim Michels |
Kevin Nicholson |
Tim Ramthun |
Jonathan Wichmann |
Other | Undecided | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trafalgar Group (R) | Aug 6–8, 2022 | 1,092 likely voters | ± 2.9% | – | 43% | Template:Party shading/Republican|44% | 3% | 8% | – | 3% | – | ||||||||||
| Emerson College | Aug 3–5, 2022 | 900 likely voters | ± 3.2% | – | Template:Party shading/Republican|36% | 34% | 6% | 8% | – | 2% | 14% | ||||||||||
| NMB Research (R) | Jul 16–18, 2022 | 500 likely voters | ± 4.4% | – | 35% | Template:Party shading/Republican|43% | – | – | – | 3% | 19% | ||||||||||
| Nicholson suspends campaign | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Marquette University | Jun 14–20, 2022 | 359 likely voters | ± 6.3% | – | 26% | Template:Party shading/Republican|27% | 10% | 3% | – | 2% | Template:Party shading/Undecided 32% | ||||||||||
| Public Policy Polling (D) | May 9–10, 2022 | 675 likely voters | ± 3.8% | – | 26% | Template:Party shading/Republican 27% | 9% | 6% | – | 3% | Template:Party shading/Undecided 29% | ||||||||||
| style="text-align:left;" |Marquette University | Apr 19–24, 2022 | 413 likely voters | ± 5.6% | – | Template:Party shading/Republican 32% | – | 10% | 4% | – | 3% | Template:Party shading/Undecided 47% | ||||||||||
| Mar31 – Apr2 ,2022 | 1,207 likely voters | ± 2.9% | 4% | Template:Party shading / Republican 42% | – | 29% | – | – | – | 26% | |||||||||||
| Feb22 –27 ,2022 | 353 likely voters | ± 5.8% | – | Template:Party shading / Republican 30% | – | 8% | 5% | – | 1% | Template:Party shading / Undecided 56% | |||||||||||
| Jan18 ,2022 | – likely voters | – | 3% | Template:Party shading / Republican 59% | – | 8% | – | – | – | – | |||||||||||
| Jan10 –13 ,2022 | 800 likely voters | ± 3.5% | – | Template:Party shading / Republican 65% | – | 12% | – | – | – | 23% | |||||||||||
| Template:Party shading / Republican 61% | – | 8% | – | 5% | 2% | 24% | |||||||||||||||
Official Nominee
- Roger Roth, state senator representing the 19th district from 2015 through 2023
Primary Election Eliminations
- David D. King, entrepreneur and frequent candidate
- Will Martin, former official at the Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development
- Patrick Testin, current state senator for the 24th district since 2017
- David Varnam, serving as mayor of Lancaster, Wisconsin since 2016
- Cindy Werner, business professional and previous candidate for Wisconsin's 4th congressional district
- Jonathan Wichmann, business owner
- Kyle Yudes, activist
Candidates Who Withdrew
- Ben Voelkel, ex-aide to U.S. Senator Ron Johnson[6][7]
=Withdrawn
- Joan Ellis Beglinger, retired nurse and former hospital administrator (remained listed on ballot; endorsed Michels)
- No running mate declared
- Jess Hisel, engineer and veteran of the Air Force
- No running mate declared
Forecasts
| Source | Rating | Date |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report | Template:USRaceRating | June 8, 2022 |
| Inside Elections | Template:USRaceRating | March 4, 2022 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Template:USRaceRating | November 7, 2022 |
| Politico | Template:USRaceRating | April 1, 2022 |
| RCP | Template:USRaceRating | June 1, 2022 |
| Fox News | Template:USRaceRating | May 12, 2022 |
| 538 | Template:USRaceRating | October 7, 2022 |
| Elections Daily | Template:USRaceRating | November 7, 2022 |
Polling Data
Consolidated Polling
| Polling Source Aggregation |
Polling Period Conducted |
Update Date | Tony Evers (D) |
Tim Michels (R) |
Joan Ellis Beglinger (I) |
Undecided [lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RealClearPolitics | September 20 – November 1, 2022 | November 1, 2022 | 48.2% | Template:Party shading/Republican 48.4% | 3.4% | Template:Party shading/Republican Michels +0.2 | |
| FiveThirtyEight | August 15 – November 2, 2022 | November 2, 2022 | 47.5% | Template:Party shading/Republican 48.9% | 2.2% | 1.4% | Template:Party shading/Republican Michels +1.4 |
| Average | 47.9% | Template:Party shading/Republican 48.7% | 3.4% | Template:Party shading/Republican Michels +0.8 | |||
Visual Summary
| Polling Organization | Poll Dates Conducted |
Sample SizeCite error: Invalid <ref> tag; refs with no name must have content
|
Margin of Error | Tony Evers (D) |
Tim Michels (R) |
Joan Ellis Beglinger (I) |
Other Candidates | Undecided Voters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Civiqs | November 4–7, 2022 | 739 (LV) | ± 3.7% | Template:Party shading/Democratic 51% | 48% | 1% | 1% | |
| Research Co. | November 4–6, 2022 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | '48%' | '48%' | '4%' | ||
|
September 4, 2022 |
colspan="17"| Beglinger exits the race |
Tony Evers versus Rebecca Kleefisch
| Polling Source | Dates Conducted | Sample SizeCite error: Invalid <ref> tag; refs with no name must have content
|
Margin of Error | Tony Evers (D) |
Rebecca Kleefisch (R) |
Other Options | Undecided Voters |
|---|
Tony Evers versus Tim Ramthun
Tony Evers versus Generic Republican Candidate
Debates
1| No. | Date | Organizer | Moderator | Link | Democratic | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Legend:
Template:Colors Participated Template:Colors Did not attend Template:Colors Not invited Template:Colors Invited W Withdrew |
Tony Evers | Tim Michels | ||||
| October 14, 2022 | WBAY-TV | Jill Geisler | YouTube | P | P | |
By county
| Evers Democratic |
Michels Republican |
Others | Vote Difference | Total Votes | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | Votes | Percentage | Votes | Percentage | Votes | Percentage | Votes | Percentage | Total Votes Cast |
| Adams | 3,860 | 38.96% | Template:Party shading/Republican | 5,856 | Template:Party shading/Republican | 59.10% | 192 | 1.94% | 1,996 | 20.15% | 9,908 |
| Ashland | Template:Party shading/Democratic | 4,034 | Template:Party shading/Democratic | 57.51% | 2,905 | 41.41% | 76 | 1.08% | 1,129 | 16.09% | 7,015 |
| Barron | 7,552 | 37.51% | Template:Party shading/Republican | 12,246 | Template:Party shading/Republican | 60.83% | 335 | 1.66% | 4,694 | 23.31% | 20,133 |
| Bayfield | Template:Party shading/Democratic | 5,367 | Template:Party shading/Democratic | 57.77% | 3,843 | 41.36% | 81 | 0.87% | 1,524 | 16.40% | 9,291 |
| Brown | 53,887 | 47.18% | Template:Party shading/Republican | 58,986 | Template:Party shading/Republican | 51.65% | 1,332 | 1.17% | 5,099 | 4.46% | 114,205 |
| Buffalo | 2,391 | 38.95% | Template:Party shading/Republican | 3,638 | Template:Party shading/Republican | 59.27% | 109 | 1.78% | 1,247 | 20.32% | 6,138 |
By congressional district
Although Michels did not win the overall vote, he carried five out of the eight congressional districts. Evers prevailed in three districts, one of which is held by a Republican incumbent.
See also
Notes
Partisan clients
External links
Official campaign websites
Official lieutenant gubernatorial campaign websites
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- ↑ "Tim Michels defeats Rebecca Kleefisch, advances to Wisconsin governor's race against Democrat Tony Evers".
- ↑ Bodilly, Sue (October 19, 2021). "UW-Green Bay to Help Communities Prepare for 2022 Gubernatorial Election".
- ↑ Cite error: Invalid
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<ref>tag; no text was provided for refs namedbid - ↑ "Assembly Rep. Ramthun enters race for governor". February 10, 2022.
- ↑ Source references
- ↑ Source references