Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports

Company type	Private
Industry	Public opinion polling
Founded	2003
Founder	Scott Rasmussen
Headquarters	Asbury Park, New Jersey , United States
Key people	Ted Carrol (Noson Lawen Partners, principal investor), Fran Coombs (managing editor), Amy Holmes (spokesperson)
Products	Political analysis, public opinion surveys, nightly tracking polls, political commentary newsletter

Rasmussen Reports is a U.S.-based polling organization established in 2003 by its founder Scott Rasmussen. Operating out of Asbury Park, New Jersey, the company focuses on political analysis and public opinion surveys. It performs nightly tracking polls at both national and state levels, covering elections, politics, current affairs, consumer sentiment, business issues, and presidential approval ratings. Its revenue model depends on advertising income and subscriptions to its polling results.

The firm collects data through automated telephone and internet-based surveys. Key leadership includes Ted Carrol from Noson Lawen Partners (the principal investor), managing editor Fran Coombs, and spokesperson Amy Holmes. Although Rasmussen Reports holds a notable position in the market, it has encountered scrutiny regarding its survey techniques and alleged bias favoring the Republican Party. In 2024, FiveThirtyEight excluded Rasmussen from its polling averages due to not meeting their established quality criteria.

History

Founded in 2003 by Scott Rasmussen, who led the company as president until July 2013 before departing to launch the digital media venture Styrk, Rasmussen Reports traces its origins to Rasmussen’s earlier enterprise, Rasmussen Research, created in 1994. This prior company was sold to TownPagesNet.com in 1999 for around $4.5 million in stock. From that point onward, Rasmussen’s polling was marketed under the name Portrait of America.

Based in Asbury Park, New Jersey, Rasmussen Reports secured a substantial growth capital infusion in August 2009, which facilitated an increase in staffing during that year. This financial backing supported expansion efforts and helped strengthen the company’s standing within the polling sector.

Business model and methodology

Rasmussen Reports is dedicated to gathering, publishing, and distributing public opinion data with a focus on political subjects, current events, consumer confidence metrics, business topics, and presidential job approval statistics. The organization carries out nightly national tracking polls along with periodic state-level surveys while providing political commentary through a daily email newsletter. In 2012, it collaborated with Telco Productions to debut the nationally syndicated television program What America Thinks With Scott Rasmussen.

For its daily Presidential Tracking Poll, Rasmussen employs automated systems that randomly dial phone numbers across different regions to ensure geographic diversity. The surveys are aimed at American adults or likely voters identified via screening questions. As of 2010, polling was conducted exclusively through landline calls without callbacks or selection within households; demographic weighting was applied to address sampling limitations. To reach respondents without landlines, online surveys are utilized via a demographically balanced panel. These automated polls are administered by Pulse Opinion Research using methodology licensed from founder Scott Rasmussen. Weighting adjustments account for factors such as age, gender, political party affiliation, and race.

Revenue streams for Rasmussen Reports come from advertising sales combined with subscription fees for access to their polling information.

In 2010, analyst Nate Silver observed that automated polling techniques like those used by Rasmussen tend to produce results more favorable to Republicans compared to traditional live-interviewer methods. Before removing it from its poll tracking system, FiveThirtyEight assigned Rasmussen a C+ grade. The company is neither affiliated with the National Council on Public Polls nor does it endorse the Transparency Initiative promoted by the American Association for Public Opinion Research.

Presidential approval monitoring

Rasmussen Reports carries out a daily Presidential Tracking Poll to assess the president's job approval rating. Unlike many other polling organizations that survey all adults, Rasmussen focuses on likely voters, which typically results in lower approval ratings for Democratic candidates. For instance, President Obama's approval scores were generally higher in polls including all adults due to strong enthusiasm among less probable voters like young adults.

In March 2009, Rasmussen was the first to indicate a drop in President Barack Obama’s approval rating, reporting his net approval at only six points—lower than George W. Bush’s rating during the same timeframe. Nevertheless, Rasmussen’s results are frequently considered outliers because they often reflect more favorable approval numbers for Donald Trump relative to other pollsters.

Generic Congressional Ballot

Rasmussen Reports releases a weekly Generic Congressional Ballot Poll that tracks the preferences of likely voters between Republican and Democratic candidates in congressional contests. Notably, in 2009, it was the initial poll to indicate Democrats falling behind ahead of the 2010 midterm elections.

Healthcare reform

Starting in 2009, Rasmussen Reports has monitored public opinion on healthcare reform legislation. After the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act was enacted in March 2010, their polling consistently revealed strong double-digit support among likely voters for repealing the law—averaging a 16-point margin favoring repeal through July 2012.

Political Class/Mainstream Index

The firm measures the gap between "Mainstream Voters" and the "Political Class." As described by the Wall Street Journal, Rasmussen defines the political class based on factors such as trust in government decision-making, beliefs about government acting as a special interest entity, and perceptions of government-business collaborations potentially harming consumers and investors.

Additional topics

Rasmussen Reports conducts weekly tracking polls assessing whether voters believe the nation is moving in the right direction. It also regularly updates public opinion data on issues like global warming, energy policy, housing, terrorism, Congress, the Supreme Court, partisan trust levels, and broader opinion trends.

David Weigel observed that Rasmussen’s issue-focused polling wields influence within conservative circles; for example, early polls consistently showed voter preference for stimulus plans centered solely on tax cuts, informing Republican policy discussions.

In May 2012, a Rasmussen survey found that 56% of respondents supported legalizing and regulating marijuana similarly to alcohol and tobacco. By July 2012, another poll indicated that over two-thirds of Americans wanted to replace every member of Congress. By January 2013, Tea Party support had declined sharply: only 30% viewed it favorably, 49% unfavorably, and just 8% identified as members.

2000

During the 2000 United States presidential election, Scott Rasmussen conducted polling under the name Portrait of America, which preceded Rasmussen Reports. The Portrait of America forecast missed by 4.5%, compared with an average national poll margin of error near 1.1%. Rasmussen’s automated telephone survey showed Gore leading Bush 49-40 in the popular vote nationally; however, the actual vote was roughly tied at about 48% each.

2004

During the 2004 United States presidential election, Rasmussen demonstrated superior performance compared to many rivals in key battleground states, frequently by significant margins, as reported by Slate. Their projections closely matched the actual vote counts for both George W. Bush and John Kerry, differing by no more than one percentage point.

2008

According to Politico, Rasmussen's final 2008 poll accurately reflected the election outcome, showing Obama defeating Sen. John McCain 52% to 46%. Talking Points Memo recognized Rasmussen as one of the most precise pollsters, with final figures nearly matching Obama's true margin. A 2009 evaluation placed Rasmussen in a tie for ninth place among 23 polling organizations based on Obama's 7.2% victory margin.

Rasmussen correctly forecasted the winner in 46 states. Their closing polls indicated McCain leading in Florida, Indiana, and North Carolina—states ultimately won by Obama. Ohio was marked as a toss-up; Obama secured it by four points.

2012

Rasmussen Reports' concluding Electoral College forecast for 2012 allocated 237 safe electoral votes to Barack Obama, 206 to Mitt Romney, and identified eight battleground states with a combined total of 95 electoral votes as toss-ups. The final daily tracking poll from Rasmussen showed Romney slightly ahead of Obama at 49% to 48%. Ultimately, Obama prevailed by nearly four percentage points. Rasmussen predicted Obama would carry Nevada and New Hampshire, tie Romney in Ohio and Wisconsin, and lose five other swing states including North Carolina. In reality, Obama won Ohio, Wisconsin, Colorado, Florida, Iowa, and Virginia, while Romney claimed North Carolina.

A Fordham University study ranked Rasmussen Reports 24th out of 28 polls in terms of accuracy, placing it just above Gallup. Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight analysis positioned Rasmussen 20th among 23 pollsters with an average error margin of 4.2 points. Post-election discussions noted that some conservative outlets used Rasmussen's polling to argue that Romney had late momentum.

On November 7, Scott Rasmussen conceded in Slate that while overall forecasts were reasonable, variances such as a smaller white voter turnout and increased youth participation favored Obama's strategy. The following day, Rasmussen Reports stated that the 2012 election likely signaled the decline of traditional telephone polling due to evolving communication patterns, emphasizing the necessity for new polling methodologies before 2016.

2016

The final White House Watch poll from Rasmussen Reports indicated Democrat Hillary Clinton leading Republican Donald Trump by 1.7% in the popular vote. After all over 136 million ballots were tallied nationwide, Clinton's popular vote advantage stood at 2.1%, despite her electoral loss to Trump. A Fordham University study led by Dr. Panagopoulos compared pre-election polls with actual results across fourteen organizations but notably did not include Rasmussen Reports for the year 2016.

2020

In the 2020 United States presidential election, Rasmussen's last White House Watch survey showed Democrat Joe Biden ahead of Republican Donald Trump by one percentage point, characterizing the contest as virtually tied. Biden ultimately won by a margin of 4.5 points. FiveThirtyEight ranked Rasmussen as the third most accurate polling firm during 2020, with an average error of 2.8 points over the final three weeks before election day.

Following Trump's defeat, Rasmussen sparked controversy by suggesting that Vice President Mike Pence should intervene to overturn the election outcome.

2024

In the 2024 United States presidential election, Rasmussen Reports' final nationwide poll indicated a 3-point advantage for Trump over Kamala Harris, contrasting with most pollsters who anticipated a close contest. Ultimately, Trump secured the popular vote by approximately 1.5%, translating to a margin of around 2.3 million votes.

Congressional and gubernatorial

During the 2009 New Jersey gubernatorial election, Rasmussen's last poll forecasted a 3-point victory for Chris Christie over Jon Corzine; Christie ended up winning by 4.3 points. Later that year, political analyst Alan Abramowitz interpreted Rasmussen's data to suggest Republicans would capture 62 seats in the House during the 2010 midterm elections. Rasmussen projected at least a 55-seat gain for Republicans in the House and estimated they would hold 48 or 49 Senate seats afterward. The GOP ultimately increased their House representation by 63 seats and concluded with control of 47 Senate seats.

In the 2010 Massachusetts Senate race, Rasmussen was among the first to indicate that Republican Scott Brown had a viable chance against Martha Coakley. This polling data notably altered public expectations and foreshadowed Brown’s eventual victory. Research conducted by Boston University and Pew Research Center acknowledged Rasmussen’s role in energizing media coverage and political discourse. The New York Times Magazine also noted its influence on internal White House deliberations. Nevertheless, Rasmussen’s polls consistently showed Coakley in the lead, including their final survey which had her ahead by two points, despite her losing by five.

Nate Silver evaluated Rasmussen/Pulse Opinion Research’s accuracy in 2010, finding their final margins in senatorial and gubernatorial contests were off by an average of 5.8 points. He characterized the firm as "biased and inaccurate," highlighting a pronounced Republican skew.

2018

For the 2018 midterm elections, Rasmussen Reports forecasted a Republican advantage on the generic ballot by one percentage point, whereas Democrats prevailed by nearly nine points. This nearly ten-point discrepancy represented the largest error among major polling organizations. Rasmussen defended its projection by emphasizing that the midterm results were comparatively weak for Democrats relative to historical midterms.

2022

Following the 2022 Arizona governor’s race—where Kari Lake was defeated and unsuccessfully contested the outcome—Rasmussen released a poll four months later claiming a 92% voter turnout and an eight-point lead for Lake based on surveying 1,001 Arizona residents. Lead pollster Mark Mitchell suggested during an appearance on Steve Bannon’s program that this data pointed to election "irregularities and cheating."

Business

Rasmussen Reports delivers daily updates on Consumer and Investor Confidence, distinguishing itself by providing continuous daily tracking since 2002. Its trend analyses correspond closely with those from the Conference Board and University of Michigan but are notable for their higher frequency. Additionally, the firm issues monthly indices such as the Employment Index, U.S. Consumer Spending Index, Small Business Watch, and Financial Security Index, all contributing to its business model centered on market intelligence.

Political commentary

Besides polling activities, Rasmussen Reports features political commentary on its website. Founder Scott Rasmussen authored In Search of Self-Governance and has been invited to speak at conservative media events, underscoring his dual identity as a business executive and entrepreneur specializing in political data analysis.

Assessments of Precision and Reliability

Rasmussen's track record in polling accuracy has shown fluctuations across recent U.S. presidential contests from 2000 through 2016. While some commentators, such as Patrick Caddell, have commended Rasmussen Reports, others, including Chris Cillizza, have expressed doubts about its dependability. The rating platform FiveThirtyEight assigned Rasmussen a "B" grade, pointing out a 1.5-point tilt favoring the Republican side.

During the 2020 United States presidential election, Rasmussen’s final White House Watch poll indicated Democrat Joe Biden held a narrow 1% advantage over Republican Donald Trump, characterizing the race as nearly deadlocked. Biden eventually secured victory by a margin of 4.5 percentage points. In 2018, Rasmussen forecasted a 1-point Republican edge in the generic ballot; however, Democrats prevailed by almost 9 points—a nearly 10-point discrepancy, marking the largest error among leading pollsters. Rasmussen defended its forecast by emphasizing that the midterm results were comparatively unfavorable for Democrats relative to previous midterm elections.

Positive Evaluations

In 2010, both Caddell and Doug Schoen lauded Rasmussen for its "unmatched record in integrity and accuracy". Despite initial reservations in 2004 concerning its use of automated phone calls during polling, Slate later recognized Rasmussen’s polls as among the most precise that election cycle. Politico noted that Rasmussen’s presidential polls in 2008 were closely aligned with the actual election outcomes.

At the conclusion of the 2008 election, polling analyst Nate Silver remarked that although Rasmussen had a reputation for leaning Republican, its "house effect" was minimal; combined with its large sample size and high pollster rating, it was regarded as dependable among tracking polls. Nonetheless, by 2010 Silver ranked Rasmussen as the least precise major pollster, attributing this to its methodological "house effect".

FiveThirtyEight

Initially in 2010, Nate Silver defended Rasmussen Reports against bias accusations but subsequently identified a significant "house effect"—a systematic polling bias associated with the firm. He analyzed elements such as Rasmussen’s likely voter model and highlighted that its methodology excluded a substantial portion of the electorate. Following the 2010 midterms, Silver found Rasmussen’s polls to be the least accurate among prominent pollsters, with an average margin of error of 5.8 points and a Republican-leaning bias of 3.9 points.

In 2024, after Silver’s departure and G. Elliott Morris assuming responsibility, FiveThirtyEight removed Rasmussen from its aggregated polling averages due to failure to comply with updated quality criteria.

Question Framing Bias

Jonathan Chait from the New Republic observed that while Rasmussen is regarded within conservative circles as a "gold standard," its question wording tends to favor conservative viewpoints—for instance, framing inquiries about salt intake broadly rather than focusing specifically on processed foods.

Rasmussen Reports has often advanced contentious assertions, including suggestions that COVID-19 vaccines pose lethal risks and support for election denial narratives. It released a poll four months after the 2020 Senate elections purporting to reflect election day results, combined unrelated issues into single questions, and connected polling data to purported vaccine-related death rates.

Alt-right personality Jack Posobiec sponsored Rasmussen’s tracking poll multiple times during 2020 and 2021, raising concerns about the company’s political ties and their influence on public opinion measurement.

Other

The Center for Public Integrity identified "Scott Rasmussen Inc" as a compensated consultant for the 2004 George W. Bush campaign. According to The Washington Post, the 2004 Bush re-election effort utilized a feature on Rasmussen Reports’ platform that enabled users to create their own polls, although Rasmussen clarified he neither authored questions nor aided Republican strategists.

In 2009, Time characterized Rasmussen Reports as a polling organization with a conservative inclination. In 2010, John Zogby observed that Scott Rasmussen appealed to a "conservative constituency." By 2012, The Washington Post described Rasmussen as a "polarizing pollster."

Rasmussen has been criticized for the phrasing of poll questions, which some argue can bias outcomes. For instance, a question regarding Republican voters' opinions of Rush Limbaugh was framed in a way that implied significant party influence. Talking Points Memo challenged Rasmussen’s Presidential Approval Index approach, pointing out its negative skew by including only "strong" approval or disapproval responses. A New York Times piece also took issue with its sampling and weighting methods. Additionally, Rasmussen’s focus on polling solely Likely Voters has been criticized for potentially excluding younger and minority demographics.

A 2017 CNN report underscored possible sampling biases such as the exclusion of cell phone users, though it recognized Rasmussen’s comparative accuracy during the 2016 election cycle. Conversely, political analyst Harry Enten in 2018 deemed Rasmussen the least accurate pollster in the midterm elections, with errors approaching 10 percentage points.

The Associated Press pointed out in 2018 that Rasmussen’s telephone polling method leaves out many adults lacking landlines and lacks clarity concerning its online panel procedures. An article from The Hill addressed Rasmussen's adjustment of results based on party identification and referenced concerns from Ipsos and Gallup experts regarding a pro-GOP bias.

In 2024, The Washington Post's fact-checking team determined that Rasmussen disseminated false claims about Dominion Voting Systems. American Muckrakers accused Rasmussen of providing polling data to the Trump campaign prior to public release. Furthermore, Split Ticket excludes Rasmussen from its compilation of polling averages.

See also

• Trafalgar Group

External links

• Official website