Siena College Research Institute

Siena College Research Institute
Company type	Research institute
Industry	Public opinion polling, Research
Founded	1980
Founder	Doug Lonnstrom
Headquarters	Loudonville, United States
Area served	New York State, United States
Key people	Donald P. Levy
Parent	Siena College

Siena College Research Institute (SCRI), affiliated with Siena College in Loudonville, New York, was established in 1980 by Doug Lonnstrom, a professor specializing in statistics and finance. Under the leadership of Donald P. Levy, SCRI operates on the college campus and concentrates on expert and public opinion surveys primarily concerning New York State and the broader United States. Its research agenda encompasses a wide array of public policy topics, including education, healthcare, consumer sentiment, business dynamics, economic conditions, political developments, voting patterns, societal trends, and historical subjects.

Among SCRI’s significant polling projects are studies on New Yorkers' attitudes toward the Cordoba House Mosque near the World Trade Center site and opinions regarding the Arizona Immigration Law. Since 1982, the institute has surveyed presidential scholars to generate rankings of U.S. presidents and First Ladies, contributing valuable insights into political and historical discourse. Additionally, SCRI examines public perceptions of America's most influential women, iconic television events, and shifts in consumer confidence.

The institute’s polling data plays a crucial role in shaping public dialogue on vital economic and social matters, aiding businesses and policymakers in New York and beyond with informed strategic decisions.

The New York Times/Siena College

In July 2013, SCRI partnered with The New York Times to initiate a polling collaboration that launched during the 2013 New York City mayoral election. By 2018, they introduced real-time polling for Midterm Elections. FiveThirtyEight’s assessment of the 2022 midterms placed their polls among the most precise nationally, sharing top accuracy honors with Suffolk University, and awarded a 3-star rating—the highest possible—based on criteria including error margins, bias levels, and transparency. As of 2024, FiveThirtyEight identifies the The New York Times/Siena College Poll as the nation’s most accurate pollster.

The polling methodology draws from a national voter file supplied by data firm L2, enhanced with cell phone numbers matched through Marketing Systems Group. Live interviewers conduct calls to both landlines and mobile phones using a dual-frame approach; recent surveys have reached over 90% of respondents via cell phones. Interview durations generally remain under 15 minutes. The sample aims to represent American voters accurately by employing stratified sampling to correct for participation biases across demographics such as race, political affiliation, and geographic region, with focused efforts to engage less responsive segments. Response rates typically fall below 2%, although a 2022 incentivized study conducted with Ipsos achieved a 30% response rate while maintaining comparable results.

A turnout model is applied to identify "likely electorate" participants based on demographic data, historical voting patterns, and current trends—this model was implemented during the 2018 midterms but not for the 2016 presidential election. Completed surveys are weighted according to selection probabilities and demographic factors. Weights for likely voters incorporate modeled turnout probabilities; registered voter weights rely directly on voter file data. Since education information is not available in the voter file, it is weighted separately using data from U.S. Census Bureau surveys. All poll questions are released exactly as asked.

As election dates near, emphasis shifts toward results from likely voters identified through their voting history and expressed intention to participate.

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