The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity

Adapted from the English Wikipedia article The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity, available under CC BY-SA 4.0Updated 10 August 2025

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The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity is a 2020 non-fiction work authored by Australian philosopher Toby Ord, who serves as a senior research fellow at the Future of Humanity Institute in Oxford. The book contends that humanity confronts unparalleled dangers in the centuries ahead and delves into the ethical significance of safeguarding the future of human civilization.

The Precipice

Ord characterizes a distinctively perilous period in human history, which he calls the Precipice, beginning with the initial atomic bomb detonation in 1945. This timeframe is marked by an unprecedented combination of destructive capability and insufficient prudence. He forecasts that this critical phase will endure for only a few hundred years, during which humankind must cultivate self-discipline or risk escalating catastrophic threats. Ord points to the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962—assessed as having a 10–50% likelihood of triggering nuclear conflict—as the closest instance humanity has come to annihilation within its approximately 200,000-year existence.

Existential catastrophe and existential risk

Building on concepts introduced by Nick Bostrom, Ord differentiates existential catastrophe—the permanent loss of humanity’s potential for long-term flourishing—from existential risk, which refers to the chance such a catastrophe will transpire. While extinction is one example, other outcomes like enduring totalitarian regimes also qualify as existential catastrophes. Importantly, even calamities that eliminate most humans do not constitute existential catastrophes if survivors eventually restore societal progress. Ord stresses the immense moral implications: an existential catastrophe would undermine past accomplishments, inflict tremendous suffering on current generations, and extinguish opportunities for extensive future advancement.

Risk landscape

Ord approximates that there is a one-in-six probability of an existential catastrophe occurring within the next century, predominantly due to human-made causes. The greatest single threat arises from unaligned artificial general intelligence, with an estimated one-in-ten chance—exceeding all other risks combined. Additional major anthropogenic dangers include nuclear warfare, engineered pandemics, and climate change. Natural disasters such as asteroid collisions are considered to present minimal risk.

Response

Ord draws attention to humanity’s allocation of less than 0.001% of global gross product toward focused existential risk mitigation. He attributes this shortfall to inadequate international coordination, which could be enhanced through dedicated global institutions. Managing emerging technologies effectively also requires strengthened worldwide collaboration. Ord suggests a range of policy initiatives and research efforts aimed at reducing these risks and advocates for individual contributions like pursuing impactful careers, engaging in strategic philanthropy, and participating in public conversations about existential threats.

Reception

The Precipice earned acclaim as a "startling and rigorous contribution" according to the Evening Standard. Tom Chivers of The Spectator described it as "a powerful book" distinguished by philosophical depth and an optimistic outlook on humanity’s prospects.

Bryan Appleyard from The Sunday Times expressed some reservations regarding its ethical framework but praised its dense, exhilarating prose and outstanding scientific evaluation. Critics writing for The Sydney Morning Herald recognized it as both authoritative and approachable.

Amid the COVID-19 pandemic, The New Yorker highlighted the book’s timely pertinence, emphasizing its persuasive case for why humanity merits preservation and possesses the capacity to confront existential dangers.

References