What We Owe the Future
| Company type | Book |
|---|---|
| Industry | Publishing |
| Founded | August 2022 |
| Founder | William MacAskill |
| Headquarters | United States, United Kingdom |
| Products | Book, Audiobook |
What We Owe the Future is a 2022 publication authored by Scottish philosopher and ethicist William MacAskill, who serves as an associate professor at the University of Oxford. The book advocates for effective altruism and the concept of longtermism, which MacAskill defines as "the principle that positively shaping the long-term future constitutes a central moral obligation of our era." His reasoning is based on three key points: individuals in the future hold equal moral significance to those alive today; the future could encompass an immense number of people; and our present-day decisions can determine whether that future is favorable or detrimental.
Part one: The long view
MacAskill promotes longtermism, emphasizing the importance of focusing on enhancing the distant future. He outlines two primary strategies for doing so: either preventing permanent catastrophes to secure the continued existence of civilization, or altering civilization’s developmental path to elevate its overall quality. Preserving survival primarily increases the amount of future life, while trajectory modifications aim to improve its nature. He underscores the current period as a critical juncture, where swift technological, societal, and environmental transformations provide an unparalleled chance to influence vital outcomes.
Part two: Trajectory changes
In his analysis of how to better the future, MacAskill considers moral evolution and value lock-in as potential long-term trajectory changes for humanity's course. He posits that moral and cultural norms are flexible and historically contingent—replaying history could yield very different dominant global values; for instance, the abolition of slavery was neither morally predetermined nor economically assured. MacAskill cautions about the risk of value lock-in, defined as "an occurrence causing a single value system ... to endure for an exceptionally prolonged period," which he believes could arise from technological breakthroughs, particularly with the advent of artificial general intelligence.
Part three: Safeguarding civilisation
MacAskill investigates how to shield humanity from threats such as extinction, irreversible civilisational collapse, and extended periods of technological stagnation. He identifies engineered pathogens and misaligned artificial general intelligence as the foremost extinction hazards. Factors potentially leading to civilizational collapse include severe climate change, depletion of fossil fuels, and nuclear winter resulting from nuclear conflict, though he concludes that civilization demonstrates resilience with a probable capacity for recovery following collapse. Concerning prolonged technological and economic stagnation, while indefinite stagnation appears improbable, "it remains entirely conceivable that stagnation could persist for centuries or even millennia." From a longtermist perspective, such stagnation is significant because it heightens risks of extinction or collapse and might result in a post-stagnation society governed by inferior values.
Part four: Evaluating humanity's potential extinction
This section explores the severity of human extinction, considering whether the future is anticipated to be positive or negative, alongside crucial ethical questions about the moral value of bringing happy individuals into existence. MacAskill offers an optimistic outlook, suggesting that future generations are likely to strive toward favorable outcomes.[1] He further contends that preventing the birth of future people constitutes a moral loss if their lives would be sufficiently fulfilling, leading to the conclusion that "the premature end of the human species would represent an immense tragedy."[1]
Part five: Implementing effective measures
The concluding portion of the book focuses on how to identify priority issues and engage in impactful interventions. It advocates for "robustly beneficial actions" such as research and advocacy in areas like climate change, fossil fuel scarcity, biosecurity, pandemic readiness, and disaster preparedness. For domains characterized by greater uncertainty—such as mitigating risks from advanced artificial general intelligence and avoiding major geopolitical conflicts—the emphasis should be on expanding strategic options and acquiring knowledge.
MacAskill underscores career choice as "by far the most significant decision" influencing one’s lifetime impact. He draws attention to 80,000 Hours, a nonprofit he co-established that provides guidance on careers with maximal positive effect, particularly from a longtermist viewpoint. Additionally, he argues that contributing financially to effective longtermist initiatives yields considerably more influence than modifying personal consumption habits.
Critical reception
What We Owe the Future has received coverage in prominent media outlets including The New Yorker, NPR, The Ezra Klein Show, The Bookseller, and New York Magazine. MacAskill has adapted the book’s central arguments for platforms such as Foreign Affairs, The New York Times, and the BBC.
Publishers Weekly commended it as a "comprehensive examination of modern threats" that delivers "a compelling call to action." Kirkus Reviews described it as "a powerful appeal to act responsibly toward coming generations." Kieran Setiya writing for the Boston Review found it "informative and thoughtful," while encouraging readers to maintain a critical perspective on longtermism. Oliver Burkeman of The Guardian labeled it "the most motivating work on ethical living I have encountered."
TIME Magazine’s feature on effective altruism highlighted the enormous potential of future lives and stressed the significance of current decisions, echoing MacAskill’s vision.
Nevertheless, the book has attracted criticism. Salon raised concerns about whose futures longtermism serves, emphasizing issues related to marginalized populations. Barton Swaim in The Wall Street Journal dismissed it as filled with imprecise analogies and unproductive debates, questioning its intellectual merit.
Publication
What We Owe the Future was initially released in the United States by Basic Books in August 2022, accompanied by an audiobook narrated by William MacAskill and published by Recorded Books. A UK edition subtitled A Million-Year View was issued by Oneworld Publications in September 2022.
See also
- Longtermism
- Effective altruism
- Global catastrophic risk
- Suffering risks
- The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity
- 80,000 Hours, a nonprofit organization co-founded by MacAskill that provides career guidance rooted in longtermist principles